Match Forecast

How likely Meta is to recognize this sale

Event Match Quality is Meta’s lagged, blended score. Match Forecast is Caply’s 0–10 on the sale you just sent: email, phone, browser, click, customer ID. It is not Meta’s algorithm and does not reverse-engineer Events Manager. Money events under 5/10 are unmatched; their order value is purchases Meta may miss.

Score your next purchase How the score works

What moves the 0–10

Email 3 + Browser 2 — the pair that usually clears 5/10
Phone 2, Click 1.5, Customer ID 1
Names, location, IP, browser type: small. Purchase / Lead / Subscribe / StartTrial under 5/10 is unmatched

Developers: cookie and field names live in /docs.

Purchases Meta may miss

Money events (Purchase, Lead, Subscribe, StartTrial) under 5/10 are unmatched. Caply sums their order value in the last 250 events and shows that total as unmatched checkouts — currency sitting on sales Meta may not identify. It is not a refund, a payout, or Ads Manager ROAS. The lost-spend calculator uses the same idea as a match hole on monthly spend (about 50–75% of that hole treated as recoverable if email and browser signals actually land). Dashboard unmatched value is your sample; the calculator is a planning range you type.

What you see in the dashboard

Average Forecast on the last 250 sales
Unmatched checkout count + purchases Meta may miss, in the order currency
Per-sale score, what’s missing, and “if this had email”

What it is not

It is not Meta’s Event Match Quality and not a promise that Advantage+ will bid a certain way. Meta still has matching Caply cannot see. Forecast is the checklist you control before you scale spend: pass email, keep the Pixel on the landing page, send order value.