Match Forecast · Ghost · Ads Coach

Stop wasting Meta spend on a Pixel that misses sales.

Your store already has the order, Ads Manager often doesn’t, and you still pay for ads that optimize on that thinner signal.

See how much spend may be wasteda planning range, not a payout.

14-day trial Then $29 or $99 / mo GDPR-ready

This checkout · illustration

Purchase

Arrived at Meta. Still may not know who bought.

$128.00

order value

Match Forecast

2.3/ 10

Unmatched · under 5/10
05 · hard to match10
  • Email

    missing

  • Phone

    missing

  • Browser

    sent

  • Click

    missing

  • Customer ID

    missing

Events Manager can log this sale and still not recognize the buyer. Email would lift Forecast to 5.3/10. That is the product — not who logged checkout first.

Illustrated Pixel-only purchase (browser + IP). Live sales score in the dashboard.

The difference

A thinner Pixel vs. knowing which checkouts Meta cannot match

Missed Pixel purchases mean Meta optimizes on a worse buyer set. You keep paying; CPA looks worse than the till actually is. Logging the sale is not enough if Meta still cannot recognize the buyer.

01

Pixel only

  • The store rings; Ads Manager under-reports
  • Optimization learns from a worse buyer signal
  • You keep paying for ads that never saw the sale
  • CPA looks worse than the till actually is

02

With Caply

  • Checkout still reaches Meta when the Pixel never fired
  • Unmatched checkouts show as a recoverable gap you can plan around
  • Caply-sent vs Ads Manager, joined by day, once connected
  • If tracking is healthy and ROAS still fell, the leak is likely creative

The solution

Better match data. Less wasted spend.

CAPI gets the sale in the door. Match Forecast, Ghost, and Ads Coach tell you what Meta still may not recognize.

When checkout reaches Caply you get

  • Checkout still reaches Meta when the Pixel is blocked
  • Match Forecast 0–10 on each sale — not Meta’s delayed EMQ tile
  • Unmatched checkouts under 5/10 as a recoverable match gap (planning estimate)
  • Ghost: Caply-sent vs Ads Manager, joined by day
  • Ads Coach names missing email, failed delivery, no dollar value
  • Tracking vs creative — don’t rebuild ads if Forecast is still blind

Match Forecast on money events

Illustration · not Ads Manager ROAS

Forecast 0–10

0510Caply goes live7.3

Forecast

2.37.3

Under 5/10

Unmatched

Gap

Planning estimate

Illustrated Pixel-only vs email and phone on checkout. Not a ROAS case study, not a payout.

What changes

Less wasted spend. Ads that aren’t flying blind.

Not a catalog of pixels. Four things you can act on after checkout reaches Caply.

The sale still leaves when the Pixel is blocked

iOS, Safari, and blockers drop the browser hit. We send checkout from our servers, hash email and phone, and count Pixel + server as one sale. That is the floor. The product is what you do next.

See which checkouts Meta may miss

Match Forecast is a 0–10 score on each sale when we send it. Money events under 5/10 are unmatched. That unmatched value is a recoverable match gap — a planning estimate, not a payout.

Line up the two ledgers, honestly

Ghost conversions compares sales we sent with purchases Ads Manager counted, joined by day. Empty until Ads Manager is connected. Never invented. Not guaranteed recovered revenue.

Name what’s breaking tracking

Ads Coach reads your tracking and running ads: missing email on checkout, failed delivery, purchases with no dollar value. It is not an AI creative generator.

How the shift works

Connect Pixel. Paste snippet. See unmatched checkouts.

That is the install. Diagnosis runs on sales Caply actually receives.

01

Connect the Pixel

Add Pixel ID and Conversions API token in Caply. That is the setup. No extra hosting bill.

02

Send checkout to Caply

Drop https://trycaply.com/v1.js so the order reaches us even when the browser Pixel never fired. Fire Purchase with value and email.

03

See which sales Meta still cannot match

We score the payload when we send it. Ghost waits until Ads Manager is connected. We do not create orders.

Match Forecast · one sale

Events Manager can log a purchase and still not know who bought.

A sale that arrives is not the same as a sale Meta can tie to a person. Match Forecast is Caply’s 0–10 when we send it — not last week’s averaged tile, and not Ads Manager ROAS. Under 5/10 is unmatched: purchases Meta may miss.

01

Put email or phone on checkout

Under 5/10 is unmatched. Forecast tells you which identifier is missing on this sale — not last week’s averaged Event Match Quality tile.

Read more

02

Line up the two ledgers

Ghost is Caply-sent vs Ads Manager by day. Empty until ads are connected. Not recovered revenue.

Read more

03

Don’t blame ads if tracking is broken

If Forecast and delivery are healthy and Insights ROAS still fell, the leak is likely creative or offer.

Read more

See how much spend may be wasted

Type spend, reported ROAS, and AOV. A planning range for the conversion gap — not live Ads Manager, not a payout from Meta.

Conversion gap calculator

Spend, reported ROAS, and AOV. We do not pull campaign data from Meta.

$

e.g. 3 = 3x

$
More options

Tracking setup

5.0

Caply Match Forecast analogue — not Meta’s Event Match Quality tile. Default 5/10. Under 5, money events count as unmatched checkouts.

Meta is training on a sample missing ~36% of conversions

iOS, Safari, and blockers hide a typical 15%–30% of Pixel purchases. At 3.0x that is about $5,460/mo of attributed revenue the algorithm never sees (range $4,215–$6,705). Not a guarantee, and not live Ads Manager ROAS.

Monthly recovered revenue

$4,131

+55 conversions/mo · range $2,559–$5,703

Annual recovered revenue

$49,572

range $30,708–$68,436 · 12 × monthly

ROAS improvement

+28%

from 3.0x to 3.51x–4.14x

Why this matters

  • Ad blockers and iOS hide a share of Pixel purchases, so Meta under-counts conversions.
  • The algorithm then trains on a thinner sample, which usually makes CPA look worse than the store actually is.
  • Server-side tracking sends the purchase with email and phone from our servers, and counts the browser hit once. This calculator is a range, not a payout.
Start 14-day trial

14-day Pro or Team trial — card required.

How the range is calculated

Is this a fit?

Built for Meta advertisers tired of a thinner Pixel

This is for you if…

  • You run Meta ads and the till does not match Ads Manager
  • The store shows sales Ads Manager does not
  • You want less wasted spend from ads optimizing on missing purchases
  • You will connect a Pixel in a paid workspace

This is not for you if…

  • You want Caply to write ads or generate creatives
  • You need a free dashboard — there isn’t one
  • You want Ghost treated as money in the bank
  • You need a native store app or plugin — we ship a snippet
  • You do not run Meta ads

What we will not claim

Process you can check. No invented ROAS.

01

Ghost stays empty until connected

Caply-sent vs Ads Manager is a day join after you connect Ads Manager. We do not invent campaign tables.

02

Recoverable gap is a plan, not a payout

Unmatched checkout value is purchases Meta may miss — a planning estimate, not recovered revenue.

03

The calculator is numbers you type

Spend × reported ROAS is a range. Pixel-only 15–30% is a model band, not a guarantee Caply will return it.

04

Install is a snippet

Paste https://trycaply.com/v1.js and keep Pixel keys in Caply. There is no store app, plugin, or OAuth into your shop.

05

Trial is paid-plan access

14-day trial on Pro $29 or Team $99. Card required at signup. Public scanner, docs, and blog stay free.

Start a 14-day trial. Then $29 or $99.

Pro $29 and Team $99 per month. Card required. Cancel in the customer portal. Public scanner, docs, and blog stay free — the Caply dashboard does not.

Most popular

Pro

$29/mo

For growing brands that need Meta to see the sale.

  • 3 workspaces
  • 100,000 events/mo
  • 3 pixels per workspace
  • 10 sources
  • 100 deep scans / month
  • Event rules
  • Event Match Quality when Meta reports it
  • Match Forecast + unmatched checkouts
  • Ghost conversions vs Ads Manager
  • Tracking vs creative (connect Ads Manager)
  • 15 competitor radar URLs
  • Ads Coach on live events
  • Email support
Start 14-day trial

Team

$99/mo

For agencies managing multiple brands.

  • 10 workspaces
  • 1,000,000 events/mo
  • 10 pixels per workspace
  • 50 sources
  • 500 deep scans / month
  • 50 competitor radar URLs
  • Everything in Pro
  • Priority email support
Start 14-day trial

Questions about setup? Email hello@trycaply.com.

FAQ

Before you connect a Pixel

What changes, what we will not claim, and where /docs takes over.

Why don’t Ads Manager and my store match?

Pixel misses a share of purchases — iOS, Safari, and blockers. The store still records the order. You still pay for the ads, while Meta optimizes on the thinner set it did see — wasted spend and an inflated CPA. Caply sends the sale from our servers so more of those real purchases can be matched. After you connect Ads Manager, Ghost shows Caply-sent vs Ads Manager counts by day — a join, not a payout.

What does Caply actually change?

CAPI is the floor: checkout still reaches Meta when the Pixel is blocked. The product is diagnosis. Match Forecast scores 0–10 how likely Meta is to recognize each sale. Money events under 5/10 are unmatched — purchases Meta may miss — and that unmatched value is a recoverable match gap (planning estimate). Ghost lines up Caply-sent vs Ads Manager, joined by day. Ads Coach names tracking leaks. Tracking vs creative tells you not to rebuild ads if Forecast is still blind. We are not an AI creative generator, and there is no free dashboard.

What is Match Forecast — is it Event Match Quality?

No. Event Match Quality is Meta’s delayed, averaged tile. Match Forecast is Caply’s 0–10 score of how likely Meta is to recognize this sale (email, phone, browser, click, customer ID). Money events under 5/10 are unmatched; their order value is purchases Meta may miss. Use Forecast to fix checkout today, Meta’s score to confirm they caught up.

Is Ghost conversions recovered revenue?

No. Ghost compares sales Caply sent with purchases Ads Manager counted, joined by day. Ghost means we sent it that day and Ads Manager did not reflect it. Attribution windows and timezones move the counts. It is not guaranteed recovered revenue and not a campaign ROAS table. Empty until Ads Manager is connected.

What does Ads Coach look at?

The last 250 sales in your workspace: whether they arrived, whether checkout had email or phone, whether purchases have a dollar value, and whether your Pixel connection is healthy. When Ads Manager is connected it also reads running ads. The rule engine always runs. Optional language-model rewrite uses those totals only — never raw emails or phones. It does not generate creatives.

Is there a free plan?

The public scanner, docs, and blog are free. The Caply dashboard (CAPI, Ads Coach, Ghost, radar, in-app scanner) is Pro $29/mo or Team $99/mo with a 14-day trial (card required). There is no free workspace.

Do I send hashed or plaintext emails?

Plaintext. Caply hashes once before Meta. If you already send a hashed value, it is not hashed again. Developers: the exact format is in /docs.

How do I install Caply?

Create a workspace, connect Pixel ID and a Conversions API token, create a source, paste https://trycaply.com/v1.js, then fire Purchase with email and order value. There is no store app or plugin.

How is Caply different from a tagging server or Meta’s one-click option?

You do not run Google Tag Manager on a server. Meta’s one-click option mostly mirrors the browser Pixel, so blocked browsers stay blocked. A CAPI pipe only asks whether the event arrived. Caply also scores how likely Meta is to recognize this sale, and whether a ROAS drop is tracking or creative.

Built for Meta advertisers tired of a thinner Pixel.

14-day trial. Card required. Then $29 or $99. No free workspace.

  • You run Meta ads and the till does not match Ads Manager
  • You want Match Forecast, Ghost, and Ads Coach on live sales
  • You will paste a snippet — there is no store app

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