Match Forecast
Know if Meta will recognize this sale — before the campaign spends
Meta’s match score arrives late and averaged. Caply scores how likely Meta is to recognize this sale the moment we send it — plus dollars sitting in unmatched checkouts.
Meta tells you match quality after the campaign already spent. Caply tells you on the sale.
Event Match Quality in Events Manager is a lagging average. It cannot answer “did this purchase have a person on it?” Operators wait a day, then guess whether checkout, the Pixel, or the token is at fault.
Match Forecast scores how likely Meta is to recognize this sale, at ingest, 0–10.
What moves the score (same weights the dashboard uses)
| Signal | Weight |
|---|---|
| 3 | |
| Phone | 2 |
| Browser | 2 |
| Click | 1.5 |
| Customer ID | 1 |
| Names / location / IP / browser type | small |
A Purchase, Lead, Subscribe, or StartTrial under 5/10 is unmatched. Sum of those order values is purchases Meta may miss — a planning signal, not a payout.
Counterfactual: “with email”
If the event had no email, Forecast also shows the score if you had passed one (+3, capped at 10). That is the argument to the checkout team: not a blog post about hashing.
This is not Meta’s Event Match Quality. Meta still has matching we cannot see. Forecast is the part you control today. Use Meta’s score later to confirm they caught up.
Open the overview card, or the Forecast column on the events table. Public explainer: /match-forecast. Developers: field names live in /docs.
Caply
Match Forecast on every purchase. Tracking radar on competitor storefronts. Managed server-side tracking without a tagging server.
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