How Much Are You Losing?
Estimate conversion recovery from your current ad spend. A planning range, not Ads Manager.
Conversion gap calculator
Spend, reported ROAS, and AOV. We do not pull campaign data from Meta.
e.g. 3 = 3x
More options
Tracking setup
Caply Match Forecast analogue — not Meta’s Event Match Quality tile. Default 5/10. Under 5, money events count as unmatched checkouts.
Meta is training on a sample missing ~36% of conversions
iOS, Safari, and blockers hide a typical 15%–30% of Pixel purchases. At 3.0x that is about $5,460/mo of attributed revenue the algorithm never sees (range $4,215–$6,705). Not a guarantee, and not live Ads Manager ROAS.
Monthly recovered revenue
$4,131
+55 conversions/mo · range $2,559–$5,703
Annual recovered revenue
$49,572
range $30,708–$68,436 · 12 × monthly
ROAS improvement
+28%
from 3.0x to 3.51x–4.14x
Why this matters
- Ad blockers and iOS hide a share of Pixel purchases, so Meta under-counts conversions.
- The algorithm then trains on a thinner sample, which usually makes CPA look worse than the store actually is.
- Server-side tracking sends the purchase with email and phone from our servers, and counts the browser hit once. This calculator is a range, not a payout.
14-day Pro or Team trial — card required.
How the range is calculated
- Default model: Pixel-only delivery gap 15–30%, Match Forecast analogue 5/10. Change both under More options.
- Combined leak stacks delivery and match without counting the same dollar twice: 1 − (1 − delivery) × (1 − match × 55–75% impact). Meta still has graph matching we cannot see.
- Recovered spend is 70–90% of the delivery hole and 50–75% of the match hole — not 100%. Recovered revenue = recovered spend × the ROAS you typed.
- Improved ROAS = (spend × current ROAS + recovered revenue) / spend. Annual is 12 × monthly recovered revenue. AOV turns that into conversion counts.
What to do next
Scan the live site, connect a workspace, and send purchase with email. Then read Match Forecast and Ads Coach on your actual sales. Plans start at $0: pricing.
FAQ
- Is this my campaign ROAS from Ads Manager?
- No. Caply does not pull Meta Insights or campaign rows. You type spend, reported ROAS, and AOV. After you connect a Pixel, Match Forecast and Ads Coach read the sales Caply already sent — still not campaign ROAS.
- Why a range instead of one number?
- Pixel-only setups typically miss 15–30% of conversions (iOS, ITP, blockers). Match quality and whether some server-side tracking already exists move that band. A single dollar figure would pretend we know your ATT mix and checkout emails.
- What does “recovered revenue” mean?
- Attributed revenue sitting on the share of conversions Caply can reasonably send: 70–90% of the delivery hole if the purchase hits server-side tracking, and 50–75% of the match hole if email, phone, and browser signals land. It is not guaranteed extra sales.
- How is ROAS improvement calculated?
- Reported revenue = spend × the ROAS you entered. Improved ROAS = (reported revenue + recovered revenue) / spend. Live numbers after you connect come from your event stream, not this calculator.